Efficient computational strategies to learn the structure of probabilistic graphical models of cumulative phenomena

Structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is a NP-hard problem, which is further complicated by many theoretical issues, such as the I-equivalence among different structures. In this work, we focus on a specific subclass of BNs, named Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs), which include specific structural constraints based on Suppes' probabilistic causation to efficiently model cumulative phenomena. Here we compare the performance, via extensive simulations, of various state-of-the-art search strategies, such as local search techniques and Genetic Algorithms, as well as of distinct regularization methods. The assessment is performed on a large number of simulated datasets from topologies with distinct levels of complexity, various sample size and different rates of errors in the data. Among the main results, we show that the introduction of Suppes' constraints dramatically improve the inference accuracy, by reducing the solution space and providing a temporal ordering on the variables. We also report on trade-offs among different search techniques that can be efficiently employed in distinct experimental settings. This manuscript is an extended version of the paper "Structural Learning of Probabilistic Graphical Models of Cumulative Phenomena" presented at the 2018 International Conference on Computational Science

Parallel Implementation of Efficient Search Schemes for the Inference of Cancer Progression Models

The emergence and development of cancer is a consequence of the accumulation over time of genomic mutations involving a specific set of genes, which provides the cancer clones with a functional selective advantage. In this work, we model the order of accumulation of such mutations during the progression, which eventually leads to the disease, by means of probabilistic graphic models, i.e., Bayesian Networks (BNs). We investigate how to perform the task of learning the structure of such BNs, according to experimental evidence, adopting a global optimization meta-heuristics. In particular, in this work we rely on Genetic Algorithms, and to strongly reduce the execution time of the inference -- which can also involve multiple repetitions to collect statistically significant assessments of the data -- we distribute the calculations using both multi-threading and a multi-node architecture. The results show that our approach is characterized by good accuracy and specificity; we also demonstrate its feasibility, thanks to a 84x reduction of the overall execution time with respect to a traditional sequential implementation

Multi-objective optimization to explicitly account for model complexity when learning Bayesian Networks

Bayesian Networks have been widely used in the last decades in many fields, to describe statistical dependencies among random variables. In general, learning the structure of such models is a problem with considerable theoretical interest that still poses many challenges. On the one hand, this is a well-known NP-complete problem, which is practically hardened by the huge search space of possible solutions. On the other hand, the phenomenon of I-equivalence, i.e., different graphical structures underpinning the same set of statistical dependencies, may lead to multimodal fitness landscapes further hindering maximum likelihood approaches to solve the task. Despite all these difficulties, greedy search methods based on a likelihood score coupled with a regularization term to account for model complexity, have been shown to be surprisingly effective in practice. In this paper, we consider the formulation of the task of learning the structure of Bayesian Networks as an optimization problem based on a likelihood score. Nevertheless, our approach do not adjust this score by means of any of the complexity terms proposed in the literature; instead, it accounts directly for the complexity of the discovered solutions by exploiting a multi-objective optimization procedure. To this extent, we adopt NSGA-II and define the first objective function to be the likelihood of a solution and the second to be the number of selected arcs. We thoroughly analyze the behavior of our method on a wide set of simulated data, and we discuss the performance considering the goodness of the inferred solutions both in terms of their objective functions and with respect to the retrieved structure. Our results show that NSGA-II can converge to solutions characterized by better likelihood and less arcs than classic approaches, although paradoxically frequently characterized by a lower similarity to the target network

Measuring Perceived Trust in XAI-Assisted Decision-Making by Eliciting a Mental Model

This empirical study proposes a novel methodology to measure users' perceived trust in an Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) model. To do so, users' mental models are elicited using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs). First, we exploit an interpretable Machine Learning (ML) model to classify suspected COVID-19 patients into positive or negative cases. Then, Medical Experts' (MEs) conduct a diagnostic decision-making task based on their knowledge and then prediction and interpretations provided by the XAI model. In order to evaluate the impact of interpretations on perceived trust, explanation satisfaction attributes are rated by MEs through a survey. Then, they are considered as FCM's concepts to determine their influences on each other and, ultimately, on the perceived trust. Moreover, to consider MEs' mental subjectivity, fuzzy linguistic variables are used to determine the strength of influences. After reaching the steady state of FCMs, a quantified value is obtained to measure the perceived trust of each ME. The results show that the quantified values can determine whether MEs trust or distrust the XAI model. We analyze this behavior by comparing the quantified values with MEs' performance in completing diagnostic tasks

Measuring Perceived Trust in XAI-Assisted Decision-Making by Eliciting a Mental Model

This empirical study proposes a novel methodology to measure users' perceived trust in an Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) model. To do so, users' mental models are elicited using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs). First, we exploit an interpretable Machine Learning (ML) model to classify suspected COVID-19 patients into positive or negative cases. Then, Medical Experts' (MEs) conduct a diagnostic decision-making task based on their knowledge and then prediction and interpretations provided by the XAI model. In order to evaluate the impact of interpretations on perceived trust, explanation satisfaction attributes are rated by MEs through a survey. Then, they are considered as FCM's concepts to determine their influences on each other and, ultimately, on the perceived trust. Moreover, to consider MEs' mental subjectivity, fuzzy linguistic variables are used to determine the strength of influences. After reaching the steady state of FCMs, a quantified value is obtained to measure the perceived trust of each ME. The results show that the quantified values can determine whether MEs trust or distrust the XAI model. We analyze this behavior by comparing the quantified values with MEs' performance in completing diagnostic tasks.Comment: Accepted in IJCAI 2023 Workshop on Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI

Mayor\u27s Address: and the Annual Reports of the Several Departments of the City Government of Bangor, at the Close of the Municipal Year, March, 1857

Despite the intense research focused on the investigation of the functioning settings of Particle Swarm Optimization, the particles initialization functions - determining the initial positions in the search space - are generally ignored, especially in the case of real-world applications. As a matter of fact, almost all works exploit uniform distributions to randomly generate the particles coordinates. In this article, we analyze the impact on the optimization performances of alternative initialization functions based on logarithmic, normal, and lognormal distributions. Our results show how different initialization strategies can affect - and in some cases largely improve - the convergence speed, both in the case of benchmark functions and in the optimization of the kinetic constants of biochemical systems

FiCoS: A fine-grained and coarse-grained GPU-powered deterministic simulator for biochemical networks.

Mathematical models of biochemical networks can largely facilitate the comprehension of the mechanisms at the basis of cellular processes, as well as the formulation of hypotheses that can be tested by means of targeted laboratory experiments. However, two issues might hamper the achievement of fruitful outcomes. On the one hand, detailed mechanistic models can involve hundreds or thousands of molecular species and their intermediate complexes, as well as hundreds or thousands of chemical reactions, a situation generally occurring in rule-based modeling. On the other hand, the computational analysis of a model typically requires the execution of a large number of simulations for its calibration, or to test the effect of perturbations. As a consequence, the computational capabilities of modern Central Processing Units can be easily overtaken, possibly making the modeling of biochemical networks a worthless or ineffective effort. To the aim of overcoming the limitations of the current state-of-the-art simulation approaches, we present in this paper FiCoS, a novel "black-box" deterministic simulator that effectively realizes both a fine-grained and a coarse-grained parallelization on Graphics Processing Units. In particular, FiCoS exploits two different integration methods, namely, the Dormand-Prince and the Radau IIA, to efficiently solve both non-stiff and stiff systems of coupled Ordinary Differential Equations. We tested the performance of FiCoS against different deterministic simulators, by considering models of increasing size and by running analyses with increasing computational demands. FiCoS was able to dramatically speedup the computations up to 855×, showing to be a promising solution for the simulation and analysis of large-scale models of complex biological processes

A novel framework for MR image segmentation and quantification by using MedGA.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Image segmentation represents one of the most challenging issues in medical image analysis to distinguish among different adjacent tissues in a body part. In this context, appropriate image pre-processing tools can improve the result accuracy achieved by computer-assisted segmentation methods. Taking into consideration images with a bimodal intensity distribution, image binarization can be used to classify the input pictorial data into two classes, given a threshold intensity value. Unfortunately, adaptive thresholding techniques for two-class segmentation work properly only for images characterized by bimodal histograms. We aim at overcoming these limitations and automatically determining a suitable optimal threshold for bimodal Magnetic Resonance (MR) images, by designing an intelligent image analysis framework tailored to effectively assist the physicians during their decision-making tasks. METHODS: In this work, we present a novel evolutionary framework for image enhancement, automatic global thresholding, and segmentation, which is here applied to different clinical scenarios involving bimodal MR image analysis: (i) uterine fibroid segmentation in MR guided Focused Ultrasound Surgery, and (ii) brain metastatic cancer segmentation in neuro-radiosurgery therapy. Our framework exploits MedGA as a pre-processing stage. MedGA is an image enhancement method based on Genetic Algorithms that improves the threshold selection, obtained by the efficient Iterative Optimal Threshold Selection algorithm, between the underlying sub-distributions in a nearly bimodal histogram. RESULTS: The results achieved by the proposed evolutionary framework were quantitatively evaluated, showing that the use of MedGA as a pre-processing stage outperforms the conventional image enhancement methods (i.e., histogram equalization, bi-histogram equalization, Gamma transformation, and sigmoid transformation), in terms of both MR image enhancement and segmentation evaluation metrics. CONCLUSIONS: Thanks to this framework, MR image segmentation accuracy is considerably increased, allowing for measurement repeatability in clinical workflows. The proposed computational solution could be well-suited for other clinical contexts requiring MR image analysis and segmentation, aiming at providing useful insights for differential diagnosis and prognosis

Unsupervised neural networks as a support tool for pathology diagnosis in MALDI-MSI experiments:A case study on thyroid biopsies

Artificial intelligence is getting a foothold in medicine for disease screening and diagnosis. While typical machine learning methods require large labeled datasets for training and validation, their application is limited in clinical fields since ground truth information can hardly be obtained on a sizeable cohort of patients. Unsupervised neural networks - such as Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) - represent an alternative approach to identifying hidden patterns in biomedical data. Here we investigate the feasibility of SOMs for the identification of malignant and non-malignant regions in liquid biopsies of thyroid nodules, on a patient-specific basis. MALDI-ToF (Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization -Time of Flight) mass spectrometry-imaging (MSI) was used to measure the spectral profile of bioptic samples. SOMs were then applied for the analysis of MALDI-MSI data of individual patients' samples, also testing various pre-processing and agglomerative clustering methods to investigate their impact on SOMs' discrimination efficacy. The final clustering was compared against the sample's probability to be malignant, hyperplastic or related to Hashimoto thyroiditis as quantified by multinomial regression with LASSO. Our results show that SOMs are effective in separating the areas of a sample containing benign cells from those containing malignant cells. Moreover, they allow to overlap the different areas of cytological glass slides with the corresponding proteomic profile image, and inspect the specific weight of every cellular component in bioptic samples. We envision that this approach could represent an effective means to assist pathologists in diagnostic tasks, avoiding the need to manually annotate cytological images and the effort in creating labeled datasets